Guingamp 2-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Guingamp welcome Saint Etienne to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Roudourou this season.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Saint Etienne's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Saint Etienne's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 2, Saint Etienne 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 3–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 47% versus Saint Etienne 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 45% | Saint Etienne 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 0.73 xG and Saint Etienne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.853 / defence 0.984 | Saint Etienne attack 1.122 / defence 0.702. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.141. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.702 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Guingamp games / 73 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 21% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 48%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 2.08. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Saint Etienne 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 4 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 21% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Guingamp 0.73 / Saint Etienne 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.853 / def 0.984 | Saint Etienne attack 1.122 / def 0.702 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Saint Etienne xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 May 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne part of?
Guingamp vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 21% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Guingamp and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.85x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
21%
4.72
30%
3.30
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.99
1.26
Saint Etienne xG
4.72
21%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 17.2 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.26 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 73 games, going 28W 21D 24L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.63 PPG from 73 outings (34W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Guingamp's home form reads 12W 10D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.47 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Saint Etienne in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 28W 21D 24L in their last 73 games (1.44 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 34W 17D 22L in their last 73 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.28 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Saint Etienne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 3, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Saint Etienne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, Saint Etienne 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Guingamp) and 50% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 36%; Guingamp have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 53% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Guingamp's recent games and 50% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 36, as Guingamp and Saint Etienne drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 0.73 xG and Saint Etienne 1.26 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.85 / defence 0.98 against Saint Etienne attack 1.12 / defence 0.70, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 21% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 48%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 45%, Saint Etienne 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.