Le Havre 1-0 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Bordeaux at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 18:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Le Havre have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 2.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bordeaux in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Bordeaux 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 34% | Bordeaux 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.37 xG and Bordeaux 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.156 / defence 0.814 | Bordeaux attack 0.910 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.050. Data: 53 Le Havre games / 15 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 51% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Bordeaux 4.76. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Bordeaux 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 18:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 51% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Le Havre 1.37 / Bordeaux 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.156 / def 0.814 | Bordeaux attack 0.910 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Bordeaux xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Bordeaux kick off?
Le Havre vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:05 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Bordeaux?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Bordeaux.
Where is Le Havre vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Bordeaux part of?
Le Havre vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 51% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Le Havre and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bordeaux?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Bordeaux in?
Le Havre (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 1.16x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.59
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.15
0.78
Bordeaux xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.78 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre's recent record stands at 22W 16D 15L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 22L across 53 games — 1.11 PPG, with W-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Le Havre by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bordeaux heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.36 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Bordeaux
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 14W 17D 22L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Bordeaux away?
Le Havre's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.46 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Le Havre
0
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Bordeaux have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Bordeaux 1-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Bordeaux?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 42%, Bordeaux 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Le Havre) and 73% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 31% of games; Bordeaux in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Le Havre's recent matches and 62% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Le Havre's recent games and 73% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Bordeaux 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Bordeaux 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.37 xG and Bordeaux 0.78 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.16 / defence 0.81 against Bordeaux attack 0.91 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 51% | Draw 28% | Bordeaux 21%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 34%, Bordeaux 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bordeaux's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.