Annecy vs Clermont Foot – Match Report

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Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Clermont Foot.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Clermont Foot 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 0.62 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Clermont Foot attack 0.72 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 62% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 14%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 56%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights