Annecy 2-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Annecy at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Annecy are significantly better at Parc des Sports than their overall form suggests.

Clermont Foot — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.60 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Trading Patterns

Annecy in-play and half-time data (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 54% versus Clermont Foot 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Clermont Foot 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.61 xG and Clermont Foot 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.078 / defence 0.812 | Clermont Foot attack 0.721 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. Data: 52 Annecy games / 14 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 62% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 14%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | Clermont Foot 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Clermont Foot 30% BTTS from recent games.

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