Annecy vs Clermont Foot – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.08x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.09
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.0%
Home win
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.23
0.62
Clermont Foot xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
3%
35.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Annecy and 0.62 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.