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Prediction vindicated as Annecy edge out Bastia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Annecy beat Bastia 1-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.34 xG and Bastia 0.53 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Bastia attack 0.50 / defence 0.96, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Annecy 57% | Draw 28% | Bastia 15%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 38%, Bastia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Annecy 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights