PAU 0-1 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Laval (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for PAU, 1.40 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with PAU winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Laval goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Laval 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 35% | Laval 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.29 xG and Laval 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.825 / defence 1.087 | Laval attack 0.708 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Laval bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 PAU games / 23 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 47% | Draw 30% | Laval 23%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Laval 4.35. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 47% | Draw 30% | Laval 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG PAU 1.29 / Laval 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.825 / def 1.087 | Laval attack 0.708 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: PAU (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Laval xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Laval kick off?
PAU vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Laval?
PAU 0 - 1 Laval.
Where is PAU vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Laval part of?
PAU vs Laval is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 47% chance of winning, Laval a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both PAU and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Laval?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 0W.
What form are PAU and Laval in?
PAU (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Laval (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from PAU's attack rating (0.82) and Laval's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.71x) against PAU's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.30
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
PAU xG
Total xG
2.10
0.81
Laval xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are PAU and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for PAU and 0.81 for Laval, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 9D 8L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for PAU against 1.22 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 3W 5D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.22 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Laval in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 6W 9D 8L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Laval have gone 8W 4D 11L in their last 23 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Laval away?
PAU's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.27 PPG; Laval away: 1.00 PPG.
Have PAU or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Laval in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
PAU
2
Draws
2
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 4, Laval have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Laval 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Laval?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 36%, Laval 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (PAU) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Laval in 36%; PAU have failed to score in 46% of games; Laval in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of PAU's recent matches and 36% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of PAU's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Laval tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Laval in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.29 xG and Laval 0.81 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Laval attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 47% | Draw 30% | Laval 23%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Laval win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 35%, Laval 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.17 PPG, Laval 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.