Le Havre 2-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Le Havre at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Saint Etienne meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 9W 1D 0L at Stade Océane — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Le Havre are significantly better at Stade Océane than their overall form suggests.
Saint Etienne have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Le Havre against 2.00 for Saint Etienne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Saint Etienne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 6–0 with Le Havre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 42% versus Saint Etienne 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 32% | Saint Etienne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.041 / defence 0.708 | Saint Etienne attack 0.956 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.024. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.708 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Le Havre games / 27 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 53% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 17%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.89 | Draw 3.33 | Saint Etienne 5.88. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Le Havre are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Saint Etienne 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 53% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Le Havre 1.43 / Saint Etienne 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.041 / def 0.708 | Saint Etienne attack 0.956 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Saint Etienne xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Le Havre 2 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne part of?
Le Havre vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 53% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Le Havre and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Le Havre and Saint Etienne in?
Le Havre (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (1.04) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.96x) against Le Havre's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 65/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
53%
1.88
30%
3.32
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.13
0.69
Saint Etienne xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
4%
25.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.69 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 22D 15L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 16W 19D 30L from 65 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Saint Etienne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.69 PPG from 32 outings (15W 9D 8L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 9D 17L from 32 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.23 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 65%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 28W 22D 15L in their last 65 games (1.63 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 16W 19D 30L in their last 65 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Saint Etienne away?
Le Havre's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.69 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Le Havre won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
2
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Le Havre 1-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Saint Etienne?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 41%, Saint Etienne 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Le Havre) and 53% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Le Havre's recent matches and 66% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Le Havre's recent games and 53% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 28, as Le Havre and Saint Etienne drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.43 xG and Saint Etienne 0.69 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.04 / defence 0.71 against Saint Etienne attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 53% | Draw 30% | Saint Etienne 17%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Saint Etienne 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.