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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Estac Troyes 1.31 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.07 / defence 1.41 against Estac Troyes attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 32% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 39%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.14 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights