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Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Clermont Foot 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Amiens beat Clermont Foot 4-3 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.07 xG and Clermont Foot 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Clermont Foot attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 30% | Clermont Foot 32%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 54%, Clermont Foot 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Clermont Foot's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Amiens 1.13 PPG, Clermont Foot 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights