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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Toulouse and Monaco share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse and Monaco finished level at 2-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.22 xG and Monaco 1.49 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.80 / defence 1.10 against Monaco attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 29% | Draw 29% | Monaco 42%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 50%, Monaco 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Monaco's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights