Nantes 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stade de la Beaujoire — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nantes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Toulouse in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nantes, 1 for Toulouse and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 55% versus Toulouse 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 45% | Toulouse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.48 xG and Toulouse 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.919 / defence 1.111 | Toulouse attack 1.123 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.300. Data: 67 Nantes games / 67 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 34% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 40%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Toulouse 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 60% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 34% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Nantes 1.48 / Toulouse 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.919 / def 1.111 | Toulouse attack 1.123 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Toulouse xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Toulouse kick off?
Nantes vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Nantes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs Toulouse part of?
Nantes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 34% chance of winning, Toulouse a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Nantes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
Record (7 meetings): Nantes 2W | Draws 4 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in?
Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
34%
2.95
26%
3.87
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.10
1.62
Toulouse xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.93
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Nantes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nantes and 1.62 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 13W 20D 34L from 67 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 27L across 67 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 8W 9D 16L from 33 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 12W 6D 15L across 33 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 13W 20D 34L in their last 67 games (0.88 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 23W 17D 27L in their last 67 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.00 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Toulouse runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantes's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
From 7 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Toulouse?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 48%, Toulouse 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Nantes) and 54% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 30% of games; Toulouse in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nantes's recent matches and 48% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Nantes's recent games and 54% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes and Toulouse finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.48 xG and Toulouse 1.62 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Toulouse attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 34% | Draw 26% | Toulouse 40%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 45%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.