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Dominant Lille run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Toulouse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Toulouse 0-4 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.11 xG and Lille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights