Toulouse 0-4 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (35%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Toulouse face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Toulouse — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Toulouse at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lille stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Lille have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Toulouse's 30% BTTS rate and Lille's 30% (from Toulouse's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
Lille have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Toulouse.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Toulouse 1–2 Lille — a Lille win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lille have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 50% versus Lille 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 48% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.11 xG and Lille 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.864 / defence 0.905 | Lille attack 1.040 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.187. Data: built from Toulouse's last 62 games and Lille's last 62.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.88 | Draw 3.33 | Lille 2.84. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Toulouse 35% and Lille 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 30% (last 10 home games) | Lille 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Toulouse 1.11 / Lille 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.864 / def 0.905 | Lille attack 1.040 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Toulouse and Lille level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Lille xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Lille FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 0 - 4 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 35% chance of winning, Lille a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.86x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 62 games and Lille's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
35%
2.88
30%
3.33
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Lille xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
12%
8.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.12 for Lille, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 62 games, going 21W 16D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.77 PPG from 62 outings (32W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 31 away games (13W 7D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.56 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
Toulouse (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 21W 16D 25L in their last 62 games (1.27 PPG), while Lille have gone 32W 14D 16L in their last 62 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.29 PPG; Lille away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lille in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
7
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 55%, Lille 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Toulouse) and 45% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lille in 36%; Lille in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Lille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Toulouse's recent matches and 39% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Toulouse and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Toulouse's recent games and 45% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Toulouse's recent matches and 74% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Toulouse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 0-4 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.11 xG and Lille 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lille outscored their 1.12 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 0.91 against Lille attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 35% | Draw 30% | Lille 35%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 48%, Lille 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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