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Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lille beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.20 xG and Lille 1.33 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Lille attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights