Toulouse 1-2 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Lille at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 12 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Toulouse — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Toulouse at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lille stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Lille have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Lille's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Toulouse's games and 60% of Lille's (from Toulouse's last 10 home games and Lille's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Toulouse have won 1, Lille 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended Toulouse 1–2 Lille — a Lille win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lille in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 58% versus Lille 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Lille 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Lille have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lille surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.20 xG and Lille 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.878 / defence 1.091 | Lille attack 0.872 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.399. Data: built from Toulouse's last 62 games and Lille's last 62.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.99 | Draw 3.74 | Lille 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Lille 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Toulouse 1.20 / Lille 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.878 / def 1.091 | Lille attack 0.872 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Lille (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Lille xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Toulouse vs Lille FAQs
What time does Toulouse vs Lille kick off?
Toulouse vs Lille kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Lille.
Where is Toulouse vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Lille part of?
Toulouse vs Lille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 33% chance of winning, Lille a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Lille will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Toulouse vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lille's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lille's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Toulouse's last 62 games and Lille's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.74
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.53
1.33
Lille xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.33 for Lille, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 62 games, going 20W 17D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.71 PPG from 62 outings (29W 19D 14L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 11D 13L across their last 31 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 12D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lille's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.52 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
Toulouse (Home) vs Lille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Toulouse
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Form FAQs
What form are Toulouse and Lille in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 games (1.24 PPG), while Lille have gone 29W 19D 14L in their last 62 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.03 PPG; Lille away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Toulouse's record when hosting Lille specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Toulouse
1
Draws
7
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Toulouse vs Lille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Lille?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Toulouse have won 1, Lille have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Lille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 68%, Lille 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Toulouse) and 42% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 39%; Lille in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Toulouse vs Lille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Toulouse and Lille matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Toulouse's games and 52% of Lille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Toulouse and Lille matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Toulouse's recent games and 42% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Lille matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Toulouse's recent matches and 64% of Lille's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.20 xG and Lille 1.33 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Lille attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 33% | Draw 27% | Lille 40%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Lille 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Lille (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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