Toulouse 3-2 Angers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Angers travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Angers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Angers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Angers have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.20 PPG versus Angers's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Angers trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 54% versus Angers 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Angers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.94 xG and Angers 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 1.053 / defence 1.079 | Angers attack 0.831 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.439. Angers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Toulouse games / 48 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 52% | Draw 23% | Angers 25%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Angers 4.00. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 50% | Angers 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 52% | Draw 23% | Angers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Toulouse 1.94 / Angers 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 1.053 / def 1.079 | Angers attack 0.831 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Angers xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Angers kick off?
Toulouse vs Angers kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Toulouse 3 - 2 Angers.
Where is Toulouse vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Angers part of?
Toulouse vs Angers is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 52% chance of winning, Angers a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Toulouse and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Angers in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Angers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.34
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.23
1.29
Angers xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
4%
28.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.29 for Angers, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 26W 13D 9L from 48 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 23L across 48 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Angers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Angers heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 16W 5D 2L from 23 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 3W 10D 10L across 23 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.15 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Angers in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 26W 13D 9L in their last 48 games (1.90 PPG), while Angers have gone 12W 13D 23L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Angers away?
Toulouse's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.30 PPG; Angers away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Angers in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Angers runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Angers?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 52%, Angers 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Toulouse) and 48% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Angers in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Toulouse's games and 65% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Toulouse's recent games and 48% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Angers tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Angers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Angers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Angers 3-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.94 xG and Angers 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against Angers attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 52% | Draw 23% | Angers 25%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 56%, Angers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Angers's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.