Monaco 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monaco and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:05 UTC.
Current Form
Monaco's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stade Louis II — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Monaco, 0 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 4–0 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 56% versus Clermont Foot 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 56% | Clermont Foot 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.227 / defence 1.172 | Clermont Foot attack 0.975 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.450. Data: 48 Monaco games / 48 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 40% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 36%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Clermont Foot 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 70% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 40% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Monaco 1.75 / Clermont Foot 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.227 / def 1.172 | Clermont Foot attack 0.975 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Monaco (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Clermont Foot xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Monaco 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Monaco vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Clermont Foot part of?
Monaco vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 40% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Monaco and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Record (2 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in?
Monaco (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.23x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.97x) against Monaco's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
40%
2.50
24%
4.13
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.41
1.66
Clermont Foot xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Monaco and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Monaco and 1.66 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco's recent record stands at 26W 11D 11L from 48 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 24L across 48 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 14W 5D 5L from 24 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 7W 4D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.08 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 26W 11D 11L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 14W 10D 24L in their last 48 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Clermont Foot away?
Monaco's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.96 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won 4-0 on 16 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Monaco 4-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Clermont Foot?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 58%, Clermont Foot 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Monaco) and 46% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Monaco's recent matches and 38% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Monaco's recent games and 46% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monaco and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco and Clermont Foot finished level at 1-1 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.75 xG and Clermont Foot 1.66 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against Clermont Foot attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 40% | Draw 24% | Clermont Foot 36%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 56%, Clermont Foot 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.