Lyon 1-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lyon at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Groupama Stadium plays host to Lyon versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 7 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lyon have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lyon are significantly better at Groupama Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Lyon's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Toulouse's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lyon have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Toulouse in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 68% and Toulouse 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 57% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 2.42 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.357 / defence 0.773 | Toulouse attack 0.790 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.473. Lyon carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lyon's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Lyon games / 9 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 71% | Draw 17% | Toulouse 12%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Toulouse 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Lyon 80% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 71% | Draw 17% | Toulouse 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Lyon 2.42 / Toulouse 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.357 / def 0.773 | Toulouse attack 0.790 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.473 • Poisson stance: Lyon (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Toulouse xG
54%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Toulouse kick off?
Lyon vs Toulouse kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Lyon 1 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Lyon vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Toulouse part of?
Lyon vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 71% chance of winning, Toulouse a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lyon and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lyon and Toulouse in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lyon's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.79x) against Lyon's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
71%
1.41
17%
5.74
12%
8.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Lyon xG
Total xG
3.32
0.90
Toulouse xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
8.42
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
9%
11.26
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
94.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Lyon and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Lyon and 0.90 for Toulouse, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Lyon have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 21W 12D 14L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 26W 12D 9L from 47 games, 1.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Lyon against 1.91 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lyon have posted 2.13 PPG from 23 outings (15W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Lyon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 7L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lyon are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.02 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Toulouse in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 games (1.60 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 26W 12D 9L in their last 47 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Toulouse away?
Lyon's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.13 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Lyon or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Toulouse in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Toulouse go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 3-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lyon have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lyon
2
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Toulouse?
From 8 meetings on record, Lyon have won 4, Toulouse have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Toulouse 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Toulouse?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 74%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Lyon) and 52% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 35%; Toulouse in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Lyon's games and 52% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Lyon's matches and 52% of Toulouse's.
Do Lyon and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Toulouse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon and Toulouse finished level at 1-1 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 2.42 xG and Toulouse 0.90 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lyon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.36 / defence 0.77 against Toulouse attack 0.79 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 71% | Draw 17% | Toulouse 12%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 57%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lyon 1.60 PPG, Toulouse 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.