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Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1-2 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.59 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.97 / defence 0.93 against Toulouse attack 1.08 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 42% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 30%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Toulouse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Strasbourg's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.61 PPG, Toulouse 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights