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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Strasbourg beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.82 xG and Strasbourg 1.67 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Strasbourg attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 35%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 56%, Strasbourg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Strasbourg's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.33 PPG, Strasbourg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights