Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 41%, yet in-form Strasbourg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Strasbourg travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stade Brestois 29 — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Strasbourg have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Strasbourg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Strasbourg — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 2 for Strasbourg and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Strasbourg — a Stade Brestois 29 win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Stade Brestois 29 in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 50% versus Strasbourg 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 56% | Strasbourg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.82 xG and Strasbourg 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.171 / defence 1.087 | Strasbourg attack 1.189 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.292. Data: built from Stade Brestois 29's last 66 games and Strasbourg's last 66.
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 35%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.43 | Draw 4.17 | Strasbourg 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Strasbourg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stade Brestois 29's last 10 home games and Strasbourg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stade Brestois 29 30% (last 10 home games) | Strasbourg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.82 / Strasbourg 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.171 / def 1.087 | Strasbourg attack 1.189 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Strasbourg xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg FAQs
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Stade Brestois 29 1 - 2 Strasbourg.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 41% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 1.17x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stade Brestois 29's last 66 games and Strasbourg's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.17
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.50
1.67
Strasbourg xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.67 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 25W 13D 28L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Strasbourg's form line: 29W 17D 20L from 66 games, 1.58 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.33 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 32 home games (17W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Stade Brestois 29 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 11W 8D 13L from their last 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.62 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg in 64%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29 (Home) vs Strasbourg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Strasbourg
Current Season
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg Form FAQs
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 25W 13D 28L in their last 66 games (1.33 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 29W 17D 20L in their last 66 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Strasbourg away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.81 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Feb 2024, when Stade Brestois 29 won Strasbourg 0-3 Stade Brestois 29.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Strasbourg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: Stade Brestois 29 1-2 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 47%, Strasbourg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 56% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stade Brestois 29 vs Strasbourg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 62% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 56% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Strasbourg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 72% of Strasbourg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Strasbourg defy the odds to beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Stade Brestois 29 1-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.82 xG and Strasbourg 1.67 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.17 / defence 1.09 against Strasbourg attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 41% | Draw 24% | Strasbourg 35%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Strasbourg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 56%, Strasbourg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Strasbourg's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.33 PPG, Strasbourg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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