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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Metz 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Metz 3-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.39 xG and Metz 1.06 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Metz attack 0.86 / defence 1.69, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 67% | Draw 18% | Metz 15%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 61%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Metz's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.30 PPG, Metz 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights