Stade Brestois 29 3-2 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Metz in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 23 November 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stade Brestois 29 have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Francis-Le Blé — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.
Metz's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.10 for Metz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 3W, Metz 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 4–3 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Metz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 52% versus Metz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 61% | Metz 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 2.39 xG and Metz 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.855 / defence 1.031 | Metz attack 0.861 / defence 1.692. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.197. Metz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.692 — this is suppressing Stade Brestois 29's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Stade Brestois 29 games / 12 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 67% | Draw 18% | Metz 15%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Metz 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Metz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 67% | Draw 18% | Metz 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 59% | xG Stade Brestois 29 2.39 / Metz 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.855 / def 1.031 | Metz attack 0.861 / def 1.692 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Metz xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 3 - 2 Metz.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 67% chance of winning, Metz a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
Record (4 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 3W | Draws 0 | Metz 1W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Metz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.39. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.86x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
67%
1.50
18%
5.56
15%
6.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.46
1.06
Metz xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
6.57
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
9%
10.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
1%
71.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.06 for Metz, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29's recent record stands at 17W 9D 20L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 12L across 46 games — 1.70 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.70 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stade Brestois 29 have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 9W 5D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.65 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Metz in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 12D 12L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Metz away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.70 PPG; Metz away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Metz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stade Brestois 29 go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stade Brestois 29
0
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Metz have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Metz 0-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Metz?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 52%, Metz 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Stade Brestois 29 and 65% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Metz in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 61% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Stade Brestois 29's matches and 65% of Metz's.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Metz tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Metz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Metz 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Metz 3-2 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 2.39 xG and Metz 1.06 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Metz outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Metz attack 0.86 / defence 1.69, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 67% | Draw 18% | Metz 15%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 61%, Metz 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.30 PPG, Metz 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Metz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.