Lyon 1-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lyon at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lyon vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Saint Etienne travel to Groupama Stadium to take on Lyon. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lyon have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's home record at Groupama Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lyon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lyon, 0 for Saint Etienne and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lyon 70% and Saint Etienne 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 50% | Saint Etienne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.62 xG and Saint Etienne 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.033 / defence 1.155 | Saint Etienne attack 0.644 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.215. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Lyon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Lyon games / 20 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lyon 53% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 20%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 5.00. Lyon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Lyon 90% | Saint Etienne 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Groupama Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 53% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Lyon 1.62 / Saint Etienne 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.033 / def 1.155 | Saint Etienne attack 0.644 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Lyon (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Groupama Stadium.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Lyon 1 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Lyon vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Groupama Stadium.
What competition is Lyon vs Saint Etienne part of?
Lyon vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 53% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lyon and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Record (1 meetings): Lyon 0W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 0W.
What form are Lyon and Saint Etienne in?
Lyon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lyon's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.68
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.52
0.90
Saint Etienne xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lyon and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lyon and 0.90 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 7W 8D 5L from 20 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 12L across 20 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 4W 4D 1L from 9 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 0.90 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 7W 8D 5L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 12L in their last 20 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Saint Etienne away?
Lyon's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 1.78 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lyon's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lyon
1
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Lyon have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Saint Etienne?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lyon at 89%, Saint Etienne at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lyon) and 44% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 89% of Lyon's games and 56% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lyon vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lyon's recent games and 44% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lyon edge out Saint Etienne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Saint Etienne 1-0 at Groupama Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.62 xG and Saint Etienne 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Saint Etienne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.03 / defence 1.16 against Saint Etienne attack 0.64 / defence 1.41, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 53% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 20%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 50%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lyon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.