Lorient 0-1 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Stade Brestois 29 travel to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat to take on Lorient. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Lorient have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Stade Brestois 29's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Lorient's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lorient, 2 for Stade Brestois 29 and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2023, ended 0–4 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 62% versus Stade Brestois 29 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 62% | Stade Brestois 29 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.01 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.940 / defence 1.219 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.981 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.288. Data: 64 Lorient games / 64 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 24% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 48%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Stade Brestois 29 2.08. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stade Brestois 29 at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Lorient 50% | Stade Brestois 29 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 24% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Lorient 1.01 / Stade Brestois 29 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.940 / def 1.219 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.981 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Stade Brestois 29 xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Lorient 0 - 1 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 24% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (5 meetings): Lorient 3W | Draws 0 | Stade Brestois 29 2W.
What form are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Lorient (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lorient's attack rating (0.94) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
24%
4.19
28%
3.62
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.55
1.54
Stade Brestois 29 xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.55
18%
5.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lorient and 1.54 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lorient's recent record stands at 21W 18D 25L from 64 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 24W 19D 21L across 64 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lorient on 1.27 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 12W 8D 12L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lorient are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.25 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 games (1.27 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 24W 19D 21L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Lorient's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.38 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Lorient or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lorient's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lorient
1
Draws
4
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
From 8 meetings on record, Lorient have won 3, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 59%, Stade Brestois 29 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lorient) and 47% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 31% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lorient's games and 53% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lorient's recent games and 47% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Lorient 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Lorient 0-1 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.01 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lorient fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 24% | Draw 28% | Stade Brestois 29 48%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 62%, Stade Brestois 29 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.27 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.