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Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Stade Brestois 29 beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.50 xG and Auxerre 0.95 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 0.99 against Auxerre attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 50% | Draw 26% | Auxerre 24%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 62%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Auxerre's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.38 PPG, Auxerre 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights