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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris Saint Germain.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rennes beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights