Rennes 0-0 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Rennes (70%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rennes face Metz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rennes and Metz meet at Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Rennes's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rennes at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Metz (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, Metz have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Rennes. A 1.40 PPG lead over Metz (1.60 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Rennes, who have won 5 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Metz — Metz have 0 wins, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Rennes 1–0 Metz — a Rennes win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Rennes and goals — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 4.4 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 50% versus Metz 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 62% | Metz 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.30 xG and Metz 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.112 / defence 0.975 | Metz attack 0.713 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.196. Metz's defence rating of 1.445 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rennes's projected output up. Metz's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Rennes's last 60 games and Metz's last 26.
Result probabilities: Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.42 | Draw 5.66 | Metz 8.38. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Metz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 80% (last 10 home games) | Metz 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Rennes 2.30 / Metz 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.112 / def 0.975 | Metz attack 0.713 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Rennes (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Metz xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Metz FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Metz kick off?
Rennes vs Metz kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Metz?
Rennes 0 - 0 Metz.
Where is Rennes vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Metz part of?
Rennes vs Metz is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 70% chance of winning, Metz a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rennes and Metz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rennes's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.30. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.71x) against Rennes's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 60 games and Metz's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.66
12%
8.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.13
0.83
Metz xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.66
18%
Draw
8.38
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
1%
83.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Metz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Rennes and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Rennes and 0.83 for Metz, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 25W 9D 26L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Metz's form line: 22W 14D 24L from 60 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Rennes against 1.33 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Metz have gone 9W 6D 15L from their last 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.48 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Metz
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Metz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Metz Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Metz in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 25W 9D 26L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Metz away?
Rennes's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.73 PPG; Metz away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Rennes or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Metz in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won Rennes 6-1 Metz on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Rennes
1
Draws
0
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Metz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Metz?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 5, Metz have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rennes and Metz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Rennes 0-0 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Metz?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 50%, Metz 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Rennes and 67% for Metz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Metz in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Metz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Metz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Rennes's games and 60% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Metz matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Rennes's matches and 67% of Metz's.
Do Rennes and Metz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Rennes's recent matches and 80% of Metz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes and Metz finished level at 0-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.30 xG and Metz 0.83 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rennes fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Metz landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Metz attack 0.71 / defence 1.45, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 70% | Draw 18% | Metz 12%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 62%, Metz 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Metz's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.40 PPG, Metz 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Metz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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