Angers 0-0 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Marseille meet at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.83 PPG across 6 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Angers's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 games at Stade Raymond-Kopa this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
Marseille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Marseille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Marseille arrive in superior form — a 0.77 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.83) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Angers 60% and Marseille 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 40% | Marseille 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.40 xG and Marseille 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.110 / defence 1.261 | Marseille attack 1.050 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.405. Data: 6 Angers games / 5 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 29% | Marseille 45%. Fair-value odds: Angers 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Marseille 2.22. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Marseille if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Angers 33% | Marseille 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 26% | Draw 29% | Marseille 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Angers 1.40 / Marseille 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.110 / def 1.261 | Marseille attack 1.050 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Marseille (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Marseille xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Marseille kick off?
Angers vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Marseille?
Angers 0 - 0 Marseille.
Where is Angers vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Marseille part of?
Angers vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 26% chance of winning, Marseille a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Angers and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Marseille?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Marseille in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Marseille (all comps): 4W-1D-0L in 5 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Angers's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Marseille's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (1.05x) against Angers's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
26%
3.84
29%
3.50
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Angers xG
Total xG
3.26
1.86
Marseille xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
16%
6.43
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
4%
24.68
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Angers and 1.86 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 2D 1L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Marseille sit at 2.60 PPG from 5 outings (4W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Marseille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Angers have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Marseille in 60%.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Marseille in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Marseille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Marseille in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Marseille have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
Have Angers or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Marseille in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 5-2 on 4 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Angers
3
Draws
5
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Marseille?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 0, Marseille have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Angers 2-5 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 60%, Marseille 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Angers) and 60% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Marseille in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Marseille?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Angers's games and 60% of Marseille's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Angers's recent games and 60% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Marseille tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Marseille in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Angers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Marseille finished level at 0-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.40 xG and Marseille 1.86 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Angers fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Marseille landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.11 / defence 1.26 against Marseille attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 26% | Draw 29% | Marseille 45%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 40%, Marseille 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Marseille's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Marseille managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.