Rennes 0-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rennes at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rennes have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes at Roazhon Park this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Rennes against 1.30 for Auxerre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rennes lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Rennes half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 54% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 56% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.62 xG and Auxerre 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 0.912 / defence 0.982 | Auxerre attack 0.912 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.406. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Rennes games / 27 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 46% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 30%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 3.33. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 30% | Auxerre 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 46% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Rennes 1.62 / Auxerre 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 0.912 / def 0.982 | Auxerre attack 0.912 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Rennes (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Auxerre xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Auxerre kick off?
Rennes vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Rennes 0 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Rennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Auxerre part of?
Rennes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 46% chance of winning, Auxerre a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rennes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Rennes 1W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (0.91) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.91x) against Rennes's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 61/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.10
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.88
1.26
Auxerre xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Rennes and 1.26 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 12D 27L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 29W 17D 15L from 61 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rennes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 8D 12L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.70 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 22W 12D 27L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 29W 17D 15L in their last 61 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Auxerre away?
Rennes's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.47 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Rennes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rennes won 5-0 on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Rennes have won 2, Auxerre have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-3 Rennes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 60%, Auxerre 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rennes) and 53% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Rennes's games and 63% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rennes's matches and 53% of Auxerre's.
Do Rennes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Rennes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Rennes 0-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.62 xG and Auxerre 1.26 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rennes fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Auxerre attack 0.91 / defence 1.20, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 46% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 30%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 56%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.