🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Rennes at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Rennes encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Le Havre welcome Rennes to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Océane this season.

Rennes — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Rennes have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Le Havre 1.40 PPG, Rennes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Le Havre, 2 for Rennes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Rennes winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Le Havre trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Rennes trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 50% versus Rennes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 53% | Rennes 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.09 xG and Rennes 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.798 / defence 1.366 | Rennes attack 1.055 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.418. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Le Havre games / 62 Rennes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Le Havre 20% | Draw 21% | Rennes 59%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Rennes 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Le Havre 50% | Rennes 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights