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Poisson rates Le Havre at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Montpellier welcome Le Havre to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Le Havre's 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Montpellier register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Le Havre in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Montpellier have won 1, Le Havre 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Le Havre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Montpellier trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Le Havre trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 49% versus Le Havre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 56% | Le Havre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.42 xG and Le Havre 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.735 / defence 1.553 | Le Havre attack 1.131 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.406. Montpellier's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Montpellier games / 61 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | Le Havre 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Le Havre 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Montpellier 4 – 3 Le Havre • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Montpellier 33% / Draw 33% / Le Havre 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 21% / draw 19% / away 60% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.89 (75% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Montpellier (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W • Montpellier home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Le Havre away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: Le Havre lead by 0.60 PPG (1.20 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Montpellier): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson projects 2.47 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.89 (75% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Montpellier 6/10, Le Havre 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Le Havre — Le Havre at 60% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 21% | Draw 19% | Le Havre 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG Montpellier 1.42 / Le Havre 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.735 / def 1.553 | Le Havre attack 1.131 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Le Havre xG
69%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Le Havre kick off?
Montpellier vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Montpellier 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Montpellier vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Le Havre part of?
Montpellier vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 21% chance of winning, Le Havre a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Montpellier and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Le Havre?
• Record (3 meetings): Montpellier 1W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 1W • Goals trend: 2.33 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Montpellier 4 – 3 Le Havre • H2H markets: BTTS 33% | Over 2.5 33% | Win rates: Montpellier 33% / Draw 33% / Le Havre 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 21% / draw 19% / away 60% • Goals: H2H average 2.33/game (33% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.89 (75% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 33%, Poisson probability 69% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Montpellier and Le Havre in?
• Montpellier (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L • Le Havre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-W • Montpellier home split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | CS 0 • Le Havre away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | CS 1 • Form edge: Le Havre lead by 0.60 PPG (1.20 vs 0.60) • xG vs form (Montpellier): Poisson projects 1.42 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.10 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (Le Havre): Poisson projects 2.47 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.40 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.89 (75% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: strong YES — form rates Montpellier 6/10, Le Havre 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 69% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Le Havre — Le Havre at 60% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Montpellier vs Le Havre?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture