Reims 1-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Auguste-Delaune II to take on Reims. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reims stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune II this season: 1W 2D 1L from 4 home games — 1.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reims at 1.10 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Reims in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Estac Troyes 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reims 30% | Estac Troyes 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.45 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.940 / defence 1.176 | Estac Troyes attack 0.699 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.234. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Reims's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Reims games / 10 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 43% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Estac Troyes 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Reims as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Reims 50% | Estac Troyes 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune II • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 43% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Reims 1.45 / Estac Troyes 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.940 / def 1.176 | Estac Troyes attack 0.699 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Reims (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Estac Troyes xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Reims vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What was the final score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Reims 1 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Reims vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune II.
What competition is Reims vs Estac Troyes part of?
Reims vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 43% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Reims and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in?
Reims (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Reims's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
43%
2.31
34%
2.94
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Reims xG
Total xG
2.46
1.01
Estac Troyes xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.5 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Reims and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Reims and 1.01 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reims's recent record stands at 2W 5D 3L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.10 PPG, Estac Troyes on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Reims have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.90 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Estac Troyes away?
Reims's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.25 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reims or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reims and Estac Troyes runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2023, when Reims won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Reims's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Reims
2
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Estac Troyes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 25% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 50% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 25% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune II, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.45 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against Estac Troyes attack 0.70 / defence 1.23, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 43% | Draw 34% | Estac Troyes 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 30%, Estac Troyes 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.10 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.