Estac Troyes 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Estac Troyes have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games (2.12 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Nice have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Nice are the stronger side — 1.45 PPG clear of the hosts (2.12 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 62% versus Nice 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 25% | Nice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 0.81 xG and Nice 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.826 / defence 1.198 | Nice attack 1.156 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.251. Data: 9 Estac Troyes games / 8 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 14% | Draw 30% | Nice 56%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 7.14 | Draw 3.33 | Nice 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Nice (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 100% | Nice 0%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 14% | Draw 30% | Nice 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Estac Troyes 0.81 / Nice 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.826 / def 1.198 | Nice attack 1.156 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Nice (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Nice xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Nice kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Nice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Nice?
Estac Troyes 1 - 0 Nice.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Nice part of?
Estac Troyes vs Nice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 14% chance of winning, Nice a 56% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Estac Troyes and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Nice in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.56 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Nice's attack (1.16x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
14%
7.14
30%
3.32
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.54
1.73
Nice xG
7.14
14%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
2%
40.37
25%
4.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.73 for Nice, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Nice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estac Troyes come into this having played 8 games, going 1W 3D 4L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 2.12 PPG from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estac Troyes's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 2.12 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Nice in 25%.
Defensively: Nice in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Nice in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Nice have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Nice away?
Nice's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.67 PPG; Nice away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Nice in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Nice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estac Troyes
0
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Nice?
From 4 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 1, Nice have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Estac Troyes 0-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 100%, Nice 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Estac Troyes and 33% for Nice.
On the defensive side: Nice in 67%; Nice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 0% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 33% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Nice tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estac Troyes defy the odds to beat Nice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Nice 1-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 0.81 xG and Nice 1.73 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nice landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Nice attack 1.16 / defence 0.81, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 14% | Draw 30% | Nice 56%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 25%, Nice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.