Rennes 1-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Rennes welcome Strasbourg to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rennes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Roazhon Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Strasbourg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Strasbourg have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Rennes) versus 1.40 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Strasbourg trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 30% versus Strasbourg 70%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rennes 20% | Strasbourg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.80 xG and Strasbourg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.179 / defence 0.878 | Strasbourg attack 0.869 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.234. Strasbourg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Rennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Rennes games / 10 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 54% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 16%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Strasbourg 6.25. Rennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rennes at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rennes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rennes 20% | Strasbourg 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 54% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Rennes 1.80 / Strasbourg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.179 / def 0.878 | Strasbourg attack 0.869 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Rennes (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Strasbourg xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Strasbourg kick off?
Rennes vs Strasbourg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Rennes 1 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Rennes vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Strasbourg part of?
Rennes vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 54% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rennes and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Strasbourg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rennes and Strasbourg in?
Rennes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rennes's attack at 1.18x the league average against Strasbourg's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.38
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.74
0.94
Strasbourg xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
37.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rennes and 0.94 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 4W 3D 3L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Strasbourg's form line: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rennes on 1.50 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rennes have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.80 scored and 1.50 conceded. Strasbourg's attacking output running into Rennes's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Strasbourg in 70%.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Strasbourg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Strasbourg away?
Rennes's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.25 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rennes or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rennes and Strasbourg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rennes have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2023, when Rennes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Rennes
1
Draws
3
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Strasbourg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 6, Strasbourg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Strasbourg 0-3 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Strasbourg?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 0%, Strasbourg 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Rennes) and 50% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Strasbourg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rennes's recent matches and 75% of Strasbourg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rennes vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rennes's recent games and 50% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rennes edge out Strasbourg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Strasbourg 1-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.80 xG and Strasbourg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Strasbourg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Strasbourg attack 0.87 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 54% | Draw 30% | Strasbourg 16%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 20%, Strasbourg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Strasbourg's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.50 PPG, Strasbourg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.