Nantes 0-1 RED Star FC 93 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Nantes welcome RED Star FC 93 to Stade de la Beaujoire. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nantes have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Nantes haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RED Star FC 93 stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
RED Star FC 93 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RED Star FC 93's 1.70 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Nantes's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Nantes in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 46% versus RED Star FC 93 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | RED Star FC 93 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.14 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.047 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.258. Data: 0 Nantes games / 33 RED Star FC 93 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 44%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | RED Star FC 93 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RED Star FC 93 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Nantes 60% | RED Star FC 93 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 27% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Nantes 1.14 / RED Star FC 93 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.047 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.51
RED Star FC 93 xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What was the final score in Nantes vs RED Star FC 93?
Nantes 0 - 1 RED Star FC 93.
Where is Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire.
What competition is Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 27% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nantes and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and RED Star FC 93?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantes and RED Star FC 93 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nantes's attack rating (0.85) and RED Star FC 93's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
27%
3.70
28%
3.51
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.65
1.51
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nantes and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Nantes and 1.51 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Nantes have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 5W 8D 20L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. Nantes haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 15W 9D 9L from 33 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. RED Star FC 93 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.94 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nantes have posted 0.80 PPG from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 8W 2D 5L from 15 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Pre-Season
RED Star FC 93
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 5W 8D 20L in their last 33 games (0.70 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.80 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Nantes or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and RED Star FC 93 runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Nantes
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and RED Star FC 93?
From 1 meetings on record, Nantes have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Nantes 0-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 53%, RED Star FC 93 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Nantes) and 53% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 47%; Nantes have failed to score in 27% of games; RED Star FC 93 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nantes's recent matches and 33% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Nantes's recent games and 53% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RED Star FC 93 edge out Nantes 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Nantes 0-1 at Stade de la Beaujoire, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.14 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.51 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nantes fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against RED Star FC 93 attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 0/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 27% | Draw 28% | RED Star FC 93 44%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, RED Star FC 93 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RED Star FC 93 arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.