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Dominant Paris Saint Germain run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Le Havre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Le Havre 3-0 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.05 / defence 0.84 against Le Havre attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 63%, Le Havre 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Le Havre's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights