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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.

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Full Analysis

Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:05 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Paris Saint Germain at Parc des Princes this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Princes.

Le Havre (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Le Havre away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Le Havre managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Paris Saint Germain winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 70% and Le Havre 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 63% | Le Havre 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.65 xG and Le Havre 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.053 / defence 0.839 | Le Havre attack 0.853 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.219. Data: 46 Paris Saint Germain games / 46 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 56% | Draw 24% | Le Havre 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Le Havre 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Paris Saint Germain 50% | Le Havre 50%.

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