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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.09 xG and Auxerre 1.38 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Auxerre attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 25%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 69%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights