Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Paris Saint Germain face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain host Auxerre at Parc des Princes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Parc des Princes this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris Saint Germain have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Paris Saint Germain have won 2, Auxerre 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris Saint Germain in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Paris Saint Germain 72% and Auxerre 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 69% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 2.09 xG and Auxerre 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.303 / defence 0.916 | Auxerre attack 1.086 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.390. Paris Saint Germain carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Paris Saint Germain games / 33 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 25%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Auxerre 4.00. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Paris Saint Germain 90% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Paris Saint Germain 2.09 / Auxerre 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.303 / def 0.916 | Auxerre attack 1.086 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Auxerre xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Parc des Princes.
What was the final score in Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 53% chance of winning, Auxerre a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Paris Saint Germain 2W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in?
Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris Saint Germain's attack at 1.30x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Paris Saint Germain's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
53%
1.87
22%
4.61
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.47
1.38
Auxerre xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
3%
32.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.38 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Paris Saint Germain have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 47W 16D 4L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Auxerre's form line: 31W 18D 18L from 67 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Venue Form
On home soil, Paris Saint Germain have posted 2.24 PPG from 33 outings (22W 8D 3L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 12W 8D 13L from 33 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 47W 16D 4L in their last 67 games (2.34 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 31W 18D 18L in their last 67 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Auxerre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.24 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Paris Saint Germain's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Auxerre 0-1 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Paris Saint Germain at 76%, Auxerre at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Paris Saint Germain and 54% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris Saint Germain play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Paris Saint Germain's games and 61% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Paris Saint Germain vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Paris Saint Germain's matches and 54% of Auxerre's.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Auxerre tend to score early?
Paris Saint Germain have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Auxerre 3-1 at Parc des Princes, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris Saint Germain 2.09 xG and Auxerre 1.38 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris Saint Germain attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against Auxerre attack 1.09 / defence 1.10, drawn from 67/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 22% | Auxerre 25%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris Saint Germain 69%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.