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Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Le Havre 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Le Havre 3-2 at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.07 xG and Le Havre 1.01 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Paris FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Le Havre outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.33 against Le Havre attack 0.64 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 37% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 33%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Le Havre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Le Havre's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights