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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Paris FC and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Jean Bouin, Regular Season - 14, as Paris FC and Auxerre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.72 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.38 against Auxerre attack 0.80 / defence 1.15, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 51%, Auxerre 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Auxerre's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights