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Poisson rates Paris FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Jean Bouin plays host to Paris FC versus Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 29 November 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Paris FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stade Jean Bouin — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Jean Bouin than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Paris FC's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Paris FC 1W, Auxerre 2W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Paris FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 53% versus Auxerre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 51% | Auxerre 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.72 xG and Auxerre 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.377 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.202. Data: 13 Paris FC games / 47 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Auxerre 3.45. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 50% | Auxerre 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Jean Bouin • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (4 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 2W • Goals trend: 2.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 3 – 6 Auxerre • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Paris FC 25% / Draw 25% / Auxerre 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 24% / away 29% • Goals: H2H average 2.25/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.04 (58% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 60% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L • Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D • Paris FC home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 4 • Auxerre away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris FC lead by 0.60 PPG (1.10 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Auxerre): Poisson projects 1.32 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.04 (58% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Paris FC — Paris FC at 47% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 47% | Draw 24% | Auxerre 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Paris FC 1.72 / Auxerre 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.913 / def 1.377 | Auxerre attack 0.795 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Auxerre xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Auxerre kick off?
Paris FC vs Auxerre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stade Jean Bouin.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Paris FC 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Paris FC vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Jean Bouin.
What competition is Paris FC vs Auxerre part of?
Paris FC vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 47% chance of winning, Auxerre a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Paris FC and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Auxerre?
• Record (4 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 1 | Auxerre 2W • Goals trend: 2.25 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Paris FC 3 – 6 Auxerre • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 25% | Win rates: Paris FC 25% / Draw 25% / Auxerre 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 47% / draw 24% / away 29% • Goals: H2H average 2.25/game (25% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.04 (58% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 60% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Paris FC and Auxerre in?
• Paris FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L • Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D • Paris FC home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | CS 4 • Auxerre away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | CS 2 • Form edge: Paris FC lead by 0.60 PPG (1.10 vs 0.50) • xG vs form (Paris FC): Poisson projects 1.72 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.00 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (Auxerre): Poisson projects 1.32 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.3 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.04 (58% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~45% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 60% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on Paris FC — Paris FC at 47% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about Paris FC vs Auxerre?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture