Nice vs Paris Saint Germain – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nice face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Paris Saint Germain travel to Allianz Riviera to take on Nice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nice stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Paris Saint Germain have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Paris Saint Germain are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Nice, 5 for Paris Saint Germain and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–4 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nice in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Paris Saint Germain in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 56% versus Paris Saint Germain 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 50% | Paris Saint Germain 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.10 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.759 / defence 0.900 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Nice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Nice games / 36 Paris Saint Germain games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nice 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42%. Fair-value odds: Nice 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Paris Saint Germain 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nice 50% | Paris Saint Germain 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 27% | Draw 31% | Paris Saint Germain 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Nice 1.10 / Paris Saint Germain 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.759 / def 0.900 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.172 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Paris Saint Germain xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 27% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nice and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (10 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 2 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in?
Nice (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.76) and Paris Saint Germain's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
27%
3.70
31%
3.21
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Nice xG
Total xG
2.51
1.41
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.70
27%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nice and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nice and 1.41 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nice come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 13D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Paris Saint Germain sit at 2.17 PPG from 36 outings (24W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Nice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nice's home form reads 4W 9D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris Saint Germain have taken 1.94 points per game from 17 outings (10W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.17 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Paris Saint Germain
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.24 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Nice or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nice and Paris Saint Germain runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2026, when Paris Saint Germain won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Nice 0-4 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 53%, Paris Saint Germain 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nice) and 59% (Paris Saint Germain).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 35%; Nice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Paris Saint Germain?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Nice's recent matches and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nice's recent games and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.