Nice 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Riviera plays host to Nice versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Nice's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Allianz Riviera this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Estac Troyes have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nice, 1.20 for Estac Troyes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Nice 0W, Estac Troyes 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Estac Troyes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 36% versus Estac Troyes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 48% | Estac Troyes 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.36 xG and Estac Troyes 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.829 / defence 0.970 | Estac Troyes attack 0.770 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.201. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Nice games / 33 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 24%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 4.17. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Nice 40% | Estac Troyes 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 47% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Nice 1.36 / Estac Troyes 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.829 / def 0.970 | Estac Troyes attack 0.770 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Nice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Nice vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Nice 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Nice vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Estac Troyes part of?
Nice vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 47% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nice and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Nice and Estac Troyes in?
Nice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nice's attack rating (0.83) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.77x) against Nice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.39
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Nice xG
Total xG
2.25
0.90
Estac Troyes xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Nice and 0.90 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nice's recent record stands at 16W 7D 10L from 33 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 16L across 33 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nice by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nice have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 2D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 0.91 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 16W 7D 10L in their last 33 games (1.67 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 8W 9D 16L in their last 33 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Estac Troyes away?
Nice's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.75 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Nice or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Nice go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nice
0
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Estac Troyes?
From 4 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2023, when Estac Troyes 0-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Estac Troyes?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 50%, Estac Troyes 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 50% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nice's recent matches and 56% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nice's recent games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.36 xG and Estac Troyes 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Estac Troyes attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 47% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 24%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 48%, Estac Troyes 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.