Nantes 5-3 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nantes at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nantes vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Bordeaux travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nantes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bordeaux stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bordeaux have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Nantes are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nantes, 0 for Bordeaux and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bordeaux trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantes 52% and Bordeaux 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 36% | Bordeaux 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 2.24 xG and Bordeaux 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.991 / defence 0.983 | Bordeaux attack 0.728 / defence 1.906. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.201. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.906 — this is suppressing Nantes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Nantes games / 33 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 68% | Draw 20% | Bordeaux 12%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Bordeaux 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Nantes (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nantes are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Bordeaux 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 68% | Draw 20% | Bordeaux 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 52% | xG Nantes 2.24 / Bordeaux 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.991 / def 0.983 | Bordeaux attack 0.728 / def 1.906 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Nantes (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bordeaux xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Bordeaux kick off?
Nantes vs Bordeaux kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Bordeaux?
Nantes 5 - 3 Bordeaux.
Where is Nantes vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Bordeaux part of?
Nantes vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 68% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Nantes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Nantes and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Bordeaux?
Record (1 meetings): Nantes 0W | Draws 1 | Bordeaux 0W.
What form are Nantes and Bordeaux in?
Nantes (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Bordeaux (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nantes's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. The same calculation in reverse, Bordeaux's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.11
12%
8.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Nantes xG
Total xG
3.10
0.86
Bordeaux xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
8.09
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
11%
9.40
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
1%
76.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Nantes and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Nantes and 0.86 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Bordeaux?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nantes come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 8D 12L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 0.82 PPG from 33 outings (5W 12D 16L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Nantes carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Nantes's home form reads 9W 3D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Nantes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 0.75 points per game from 16 outings (2W 6D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nantes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nantes are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.33 scored and 2.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux in 70%.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 games (1.42 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 5W 12D 16L in their last 33 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Bordeaux away?
Nantes's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.88 PPG; Bordeaux away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nantes
1
Draws
0
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Bordeaux?
From 2 meetings on record, Nantes have won 1, Bordeaux have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2022, when Nantes 5-3 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Bordeaux?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 44%, Bordeaux 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nantes) and 81% (Bordeaux). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nantes keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Nantes have failed to score in 31% of games; Bordeaux in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nantes's recent matches and 62% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Nantes's matches and 81% of Bordeaux's.
Do Nantes and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nantes cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Bordeaux 5-3 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 2.24 xG and Bordeaux 0.86 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Nantes beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bordeaux outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.99 / defence 0.98 against Bordeaux attack 0.73 / defence 1.91, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 68% | Draw 20% | Bordeaux 12%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 36%, Bordeaux 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bordeaux's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nantes arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.