Nice vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 1W 7D 2L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Auxerre (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 57% versus Auxerre 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 51% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.47 xG and Auxerre 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.765 / defence 0.903 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.325. Nice's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Nice games / 36 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nice 40% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 32%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Auxerre 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 50% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 40% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Nice 1.47 / Auxerre 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.765 / def 0.903 | Auxerre attack 1.077 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Nice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Auxerre xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Auxerre kick off?
Nice vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Auxerre part of?
Nice vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 40% chance of winning, Auxerre a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nice and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
Record (6 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Nice and Auxerre in?
Nice (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.77x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.08x) against Nice's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.47
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Nice xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Auxerre xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nice and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Nice and 1.29 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Nice have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 8W 13D 16L record — D-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre's form line: 8W 10D 19L from 37 games, 0.92 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Nice against 0.92 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.33 PPG from 18 outings (5W 9D 4L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 2W 6D 10L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.03 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 19L in their last 37 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Auxerre away?
Nice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.33 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Nice
3
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Auxerre have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Auxerre 2-1 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 56%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nice) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 33% of games; Auxerre in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Nice's recent matches and 50% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nice's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.