Nice vs Auxerre – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nice at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Auxerre (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Auxerre in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 1W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Auxerre — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 60% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 54% | Auxerre 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.76 xG and Auxerre 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.116 / defence 0.950 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / defence 1.521. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.318. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.521 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Nice games / 43 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 66% | Draw 18% | Auxerre 16%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | Auxerre 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Nice (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.76 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 70% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 66% | Draw 18% | Auxerre 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 71% | xG Nice 2.76 / Auxerre 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.116 / def 0.950 | Auxerre attack 1.100 / def 1.521 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Nice (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Auxerre xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Auxerre kick off?
Nice vs Auxerre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Allianz Riviera.
Where is Nice vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Auxerre part of?
Nice vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 66% chance of winning, Auxerre a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Nice and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
Record (7 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 3 | Auxerre 3W.
What form are Nice and Auxerre in?
Nice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.12x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.10x) against Nice's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.60
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Nice xG
Total xG
4.14
1.38
Auxerre xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.41
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
6%
15.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
1%
97.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Nice and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Nice and 1.38 for Auxerre, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Nice have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 14D 18L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Nice against 1.02 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (7W 10D 4L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.09 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Auxerre away?
Nice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.48 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Auxerre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Nice
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Auxerre 1-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 62%, Auxerre 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nice) and 52% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Nice have failed to score in 29% of games; Auxerre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nice's games and 57% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nice's recent games and 52% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More French football predictions →