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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nice beat Auxerre 3-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.54 xG and Auxerre 1.20 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nice beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against Auxerre attack 1.08 / defence 1.05, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Nice 45% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 30%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 57%, Auxerre 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Auxerre's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Nice arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights